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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory


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320 
WTNT32 KNHC 292331
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
800 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF ARUBA AND CURACAO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 69.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has discontinued the 
Tropical Storm Warning for Bonaire.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to
Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* North of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this
system.

Interests elsewhere along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua
and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.9 North, longitude 69.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a fast westward or west-
northwestward motion is expected through Friday.  On the forecast
track, the system will pass across the southern Caribbean Sea and 
near the northern coast of Venezuela tonight, near the Guajira 
Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea later on Thursday and on Friday.  The system is 
expected to be near or over Nicaragua by late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce 
heavy rain across the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela 
and northeast Colombia through Thursday morning, then across 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following storm total 
rainfall amounts are expected:

North-Central Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern 
Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals 
around 10 inches. 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over the ABC Islands 
in the warning area for the next few hours.  Tropical storm 
conditions are expected in the warning area along the northwestern 
coast of Venezuela and along the coast of northeastern Colombia 
tonight and early Thursday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday afternoon or evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven