615 
WTPZ22 KNHC 202056
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 104.9W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 104.9W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 105.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 104.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.3N 103.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.2N 102.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 102.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 102.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.4N 103.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N 104.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 104.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH