000
WTPZ22 KNHC 240245
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 102.6W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 180SE  80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 102.6W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 102.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.8N 102.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.8N 103.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.8N 103.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.8N 103.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.3N 104.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.8N 104.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 17.6N 104.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 104.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 102.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS