599 
WTPZ22 KNHC 211451
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172026
1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.4W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.4W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 102.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.1N 102.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 102.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 102.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.8N 103.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.6N 104.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.6N 107.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.3N 110.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 103.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE