000
WTPZ22 KNHC 212032
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  99.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE   0SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  99.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  99.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z  9.5N 100.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z  9.8N 101.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.4N 102.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 11.2N 102.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.9N 103.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.8N 103.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE  80SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 14.5N 104.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE  80SW 130NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 130NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.4N  99.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY