463 
WTPZ21 KNHC 310253
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112026
0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 123.8W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 110SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 210SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 123.8W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 123.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.1N 124.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 126.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.9N 128.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.4N 130.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 132.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.3N 134.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.2N 137.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 140.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 123.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ADAMS