530 
WTPZ45 KNHC 182035
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026
 
The satellite presentation for Elida has actually improved
slightly since the last advisory. More convection has developed on
the northern side of the inner core, while still retaining the deep
convection on the southern side as well. However, the inner core
is still ragged. Given the slightly improved presentation and 
steady state fixes, the intensity has been held at 60 kt. 
 
The tropical storm is still turning poleward around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge, and the current motion is
northwestward, or 300/9 kt. Elida is forecast to accelerate toward
the north-northwest and then the north over the next 2-3 days as it
is increasingly steered by a deep-layer trough encamped off the
California coast. The track guidance has been fairly consistent, and
only very small adjustments to the previous track were made.
 
The storm has likely reached its peak intensity with only a few 
hours left over warm ocean temperatures. Steady weakening is 
forecast to begin later tonight, which could be accelerated by an 
increase in shear that is expected to begin in about a day. Elida is 
now expected to lose its deep convection and become post-tropical in 
about 60 hours. After that, the remnant low's circulation should 
dissipate off the California coast by day 5, around late Wednesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 19.7N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 21.0N 124.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 23.0N 125.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 25.2N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 27.6N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 30.1N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  21/1800Z 32.9N 127.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1800Z 37.0N 127.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi