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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 220236
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Recent SSMI/S and WindSat microwave overpasses helped locate the
center of Lorena, which was hidden under a band of cirrus clouds,
over the Gulf of California southwest of Guymas.  The system was
devoid of convection for several hours.  However, a new burst of
convection has recently formed just northeast of the center.  There
is little data near the central core, so the initial intensity is
set at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory.
Lorena should make landfall over northwestern Mexico during the
next several hours, then rapidly weaken over the mountainous
terrain and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning.

The microwave data indicate that Lorena is continuing to move just
west of due north or 355/10 kt.  A general northward or perhaps
north-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone
dissipates, and the new forecast track is changed little from the
previous advisory track.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora Saturday
night and Sunday. Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in
locally heavy rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday.

2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over
portions of the tropical storm warning area during the next several
hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 27.6N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 29.0N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/0000Z 30.9N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven