000
WTPZ45 KNHC 250851
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102026
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 25 2026
 
Convection has increased markedly near the tropical cyclone over the 
past several hours. Moderate north-northeasterly wind shear, 
enhanced by the close proximity of Tropical Storm Iselle to the 
northeast, is displacing the concentrated shower and thunderstorm 
activity to the south and west. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated 
winds of 35-40 kt wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of 
the system. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 
3.0/45 kt, while objective estimates range from 28-39 kt. Based on a 
blend of the available intensity estimates and the ASCAT wind data, 
the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Julio, with an 
initial intensity of 40 kt. 

Julio is moving toward the north-northeast over warm sea surface 
temperatures and within a favorable upper-level wind environment, 
which should support modest strengthening over the next 12 h or so. 
However, given the small size of the storm, Julio is expected to 
become increasingly influenced by the outer circulation of Iselle 
later tonight and ultimately be absorbed by Iselle by early 
Wednesday. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 15.7N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 18.4N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Adams