Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion
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000 WTPZ45 KNHC 200241 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Convection associated with Elida has continued to weaken and its low-level center is now exposed. The initial intensity estimate has been lowered slightly to 45 kt, based on a blend of the latest Final-T and CI Dvorak estimate from TAFB and the expectation that the tropical storm has weakened slightly since partial ASCAT data earlier today showed peak winds near 45 kt. Further gradual weakening is expected as Elida continues to move over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable environment. Increasing southwesterly wind shear should also contribute to weakening. The cyclone is now forecast to become a remnant low within 24 to 36 h, which is supported by simulated satellite forecasts from several dynamical models. However, if the recent weakening trend for convection associated with the tropical storm to continues overnight, that transition could occur even sooner. Elida appears to be very slightly farther west than previously estimated, but it is still expected to make a turn toward the north tonight and pick up forward speed as it turns between a deep-layer trough to its northwest and a ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. Only a very slight westward adjustment was made to the track forecast to account for the tweak in the initial position. The reliable guidance is in good agreement on Elida's track, and the tropical storm is expected to generally move northward for the next day or so until it becomes a remnant low. The remnants are then expected to continue northward and gradually slow down until the cyclone dissipates near the middle of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 24.1N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 28.7N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 31.6N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z 34.2N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1200Z 35.6N 127.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky