Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Forecast Discussion
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000 WTPZ45 KNHC 201435 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Elida no longer possesses any deep convection near the center and it has not produced any significant convection since about 0400 UTC. As Elida moves over even colder sea-surface temperatures, and encounters more drier air and wind shear, the remaining circulation should dissipate within the next couple of days. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, based on the TAFB subjective Dvorak fix of 2.5/35 kt. Elida has turned toward the north-northwest and appears to be increasing its forward speed, with the latest motion estimated at 345/10 kt. This north-northwestward then northward motion should continue during the next few days as the cyclone moves between a deep-layer trough to its northwest and a ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The NHC track forecast continues to be near the previous track, and lies near the corrected consensus HCCA. Gradual weakening is expected to continue over the next couple of days as the hostile environmental conditions persist, with the cyclone forecast to dissipate into an open trough within a few days. This is the last NHC advisory on Elida. For additional information please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 26.4N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 21/0000Z 28.5N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 21/1200Z 31.1N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z 33.6N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 35.6N 127.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 37.7N 126.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz