000
WTPZ45 KNHC 200241
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026
 
Convection associated with Elida has continued to weaken and its 
low-level center is now exposed. The initial intensity estimate has 
been lowered slightly to 45 kt, based on a blend of the latest 
Final-T and CI Dvorak estimate from TAFB and the expectation that 
the tropical storm has weakened slightly since partial ASCAT data 
earlier today showed peak winds near 45 kt. Further gradual 
weakening is expected as Elida continues to move over cooler waters 
and into a drier and more stable environment. Increasing 
southwesterly wind shear should also contribute to weakening. The 
cyclone is now forecast to become a remnant low within 24 to 36 h, 
which is supported by simulated satellite forecasts from several 
dynamical models. However, if the recent weakening trend for 
convection associated with the tropical storm to continues 
overnight, that transition could occur even sooner.

Elida appears to be very slightly farther west than previously 
estimated, but it is still expected to make a turn toward the north 
tonight and pick up forward speed as it turns between a deep-layer 
trough to its northwest and a ridge centered over the southwestern 
U.S. Only a very slight westward adjustment was made to the track 
forecast to account for the tweak in the initial position. The 
reliable guidance is in good agreement on Elida's track, and the 
tropical storm is expected to generally move northward for the next 
day or so until it becomes a remnant low. The remnants are then 
expected to continue northward and gradually slow down until the 
cyclone dissipates near the middle of the week.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 24.1N 126.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 28.7N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 31.6N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0000Z 34.2N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/1200Z 35.6N 127.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky