690 
WTPZ45 KNHC 200848
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026
 
Satellite imagery shows convection associated with Elida continues 
to fade as the cyclone encounters cooler sea surface temperatures, 
drier air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear. A recent partial 
ASCAT-C pass indicates the system still has winds of around 42 kt, 
so the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.
 
Gradual weakening is expected through the forecast period as the 
hostile environmental conditions persist, with the cyclone forecast 
to degenerate into a remnant low and then eventually dissipate into 
an open trough in a few days. The latest TAFB satellite intensity 
estimate was too weak to classify because of the lack of persistent 
deep convection, suggesting that Elida could degenerate into a 
post-tropical cyclone sooner than currently forecast if these 
satellite trends continue.
 
Elida has turned toward the north-northwest and appears to be 
increasing its forward speed, with the latest motion estimated at 
340/11 kt. This north-northwestward then northward motion should 
continue the next few days as the cyclone moves between a deep-layer 
trough to its northwest and a ridge centered over the southwestern 
United States. The NHC track forecast is near the previous, and lies 
near the corrected consensus HCCA.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 25.3N 127.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 27.2N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 30.0N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  21/1800Z 32.7N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0600Z 34.6N 127.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/1800Z 36.7N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly