Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression Lorena Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 220856
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Lorena Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Very little convection remains with Lorena, with only a small burst
near the center.  Strong southwesterly shear continues to weaken
Lorena, and ASCAT data indicate the maximum winds are down to 30
kt. All watches and warnings have been discontinued on this
advisory. Lorena is forecast to move northward across northwestern
Mexico later this morning and rapidly dissipate within 24 hours
over the high terrain. There are no significant changes to the track
or intensity forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora today.
Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in locally heavy
rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is a slight Risk
of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 28.3N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 29.7N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Blake