796 
WTPZ45 KNHC 160238
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026
 
The satellite presentation of Elida has improved this evening. 
Earlier AMSR-2 passive microwave images showed a formative inner 
core could be taking shape over the eastern part of the circulation. 
Within the past few hours, new deep convection has developed much 
closer to the circulation center. Based on a blend of the latest 
subjective Dvorak classification (T3.5/55 kt) and UW-CIMSS objective 
estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt. The center of 
Elida has been adjusted a bit farther south of previous estimates 
using 20 UTC OSCAT wind data and the 37 GHz AMSR-2 imagery.
 
Elida is moving westward (275 degrees) at 11 kt while being steered 
by a subtropical ridge to the north of the storm. An upper-level 
trough over the eastern Pacific is forecast to create a weakness in 
this steering ridge during the next few days. As a result, Elida is 
predicted to turn west-northwestward on Thursday and then move 
northwestward through the weekend. While there remains some 
cross-track model spread at later forecast periods, overall the 
models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario. The updated 
NHC track forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous 
prediction from 48-120 h, following the multi-model consensus (HCCA) 
and in the direction of the latest Google Deep Mind ensemble mean.
 
If convection continues to consolidate closer to the center of the 
storm, Elida may be able to solidify an inner core and quickly 
strengthen during the next day or two. The storm is embedded within 
a moist, unstable environment over 29-30 C waters, and the updated 
NHC forecast shows Elida becoming a hurricane by Thursday night and 
reaching a peak intensity of 80 kt in 48 h. This forecast trends on 
the higher side of the guidance, generally close to HCCA but lower 
than some of the statistical-dynamical aids (SHIPS/LGEM). Elida will 
reach much cooler waters by Saturday and then encounter a drier, 
higher shear environment through early next week. Thus, steady 
weakening is predicted from 60-120 h, and Elida is expected to lose 
organized convection and become post-tropical by day 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 15.4N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 15.7N 116.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 16.2N 118.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 17.0N 120.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 18.1N 121.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  18/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 23.1N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 25.5N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart