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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion


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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020

Cristina continues to maintain a broken ring of convection around 
its center, and there has been little change in either the 
organization or the various satellite intensity estimates since the 
last advisory.  Based on that, the initial intensity is held at 50 
kt.

The initial motion is westward or 270/12.  The track forecast 
guidance remains in excellent agreement that Cristina should 
continue generally westward through the forecast period on the south 
side of the subtropical ridge.  Only minor adjustments have been 
made to the previous forecast track, and the new forecast is in the 
middle of the tightly clustered guidance.

The cyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 23C, and the 
temperatures cool along the forecast track for the next 60 h or so. 
This should cause Cristina to weaken to a depression in about 48 h 
and degenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter.  The latest 
global models forecast the remnant low to weaken to a trough between 
96-120 h, and the NHC forecast thus shows dissipation by 120 h.  The 
new intensity forecast is otherwise unchanged from the previous 
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 20.6N 122.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 20.8N 124.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 21.2N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 21.6N 128.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 22.0N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  14/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0000Z 22.9N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0000Z 23.5N 141.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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