Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


563 
WTPZ45 KNHC 252031
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

The initial motion is 340/07 kt. Ivo has slowed down due to the
system weakening and becoming vertically shallow. A slow
north-northwestward motion is expected today and this evening,
followed by a turn toward the north late tonight or early Monday
morning. The official forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the tightly
clustered consensus models.

The initial intensity of 25 kt is based mainly on continuity with
the previous forecast. The inner-core region of Ivo's circulation
has been devoid of any convection for more than 12 hours. What
little bit of thunderstorm activity that does exist well to the
north-northwest and west of the center is not showing any signs of
feeding back onto the cyclone and, therefore, Ivo has degenerated
into a remnant low pressure system. Additional spin down of the
shallow vortex is forecast due to the cyclone moving over sub-22 deg
C sea-surface temperatures and continuing to ingest more cool and
stable air, with dissipation likely by Tuesday.

Although Ivo is no longer a tropical cyclone, significant swells
generated by the low are still affecting portions of the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula and southern California.  These
swells will continue into tonight and could cause dangerous rip
currents before subsiding on Monday. See products from your local
weather office for additional information.

This is the last NHC advisory on Ivo.  For additional information
on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php .

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 26.0N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  26/0600Z 26.9N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1800Z 27.8N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0600Z 27.7N 117.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart