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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 240235
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Deep convection associated with Ivo has become more separated from
the low-level center this evening, and the cloud tops have also
warmed during the past few hours.  Subjective and objective Dvorak
intensity estimates have decreased and now support an initial wind
speed of 45 kt.  Although the vertical wind shear over the cyclone
is predicted to decrease during the next 24 hours, Ivo will be
moving over progressively cooler waters and into less favorable
thermodynamic conditions.  This should cause the storm to gradually
weaken, and once Ivo moves over SSTs of 23-24 degrees Celsius on
Sunday the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low.

Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 335/9 kt.  There is little
change to the previous track forecast reasoning.  Ivo should
continue to move north-northwestward around the western periphery
of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.  Once the cyclone
weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system, it is likely to
decelerate as it comes under the influence of the low-level steering
flow.  The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 20.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 21.6N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 23.3N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 25.1N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 26.6N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0000Z 28.6N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown