ZCZC HFOTCDCP5 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026
 
The environment around Karina continues to hinder the cyclone, based
on the data from the satellite imagery via southerly vertical wind
shear, dry air, and cool sea-surface temperatures. The low-level
center remains exposed and what is left of the convection is still
limited to the north side of the storm. The subjective Dvorak fixes
from JTWC and HFO give T2.5/35 kt and the objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 27-49 kt. However ASCAT
fixes from Metop-B and Metop-C have shown that there is a cluster of
50 kt winds within the northwestern portion of the storm. Therefore,
the intensity for this advisory has been held at 50 kt.
 
Karina is expected to continue to weaken as the hostile conditions
are not expected to abate. The cyclone should dissipate within the 
next couple of days, as both the GFS and ECMWF simulate satellite 
images show all of the deep convection dissipating late Sunday or 
early Monday. The current NHC intensity forecast is very similar to 
the previous forecast.
 
The storm is currently moving slowly to the west-northwest at about
5 kt. A continued west to west-northwest motion with a gradual
increase in forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days
as the storm moves on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.
The track forecast is similar to the previous one with just some
small adjustments based on the HCCA and the GDMI.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 22.6N 144.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 22.8N 145.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 23.0N 146.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 23.3N 148.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  08/0600Z 23.7N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/1800Z 24.1N 153.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven
 
NNNN