000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190833
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Elida's convective structure has 
become somewhat better organized over the past several hours, with 
deep convection redeveloping over the northern semicircle. However, 
a 0518 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass sampled peak surface winds of 
around 40 kt, while the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate 
from TAFB remained at T3.5/55 kt. Given the improved satellite 
presentation since the earlier scatterometer pass, the initial 
intensity is only lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of the available 
data.

The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 330/11 kt. Elida is 
expected to continue turning northward while gradually accelerating 
over the next day or two as it becomes increasingly steered by a 
deep-layer trough off the California coast. The track guidance 
remains tightly clustered through the forecast period, and the 
updated NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory. 

Although Elida looks a bit better organized on GOES-18 satellite 
since the previous advisory, the system is moving over sea-surface 
temperatures near 25 degrees C and will encounter progressively 
cooler waters during the next couple of days. Additionally, 
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air 
should result in a steady weakening trend. Elida is forecast to lose 
its deep convection and become a remnant low by Monday night, with 
the remnant low dissipating by late Wednesday. The NHC intensity 
forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 21.4N 125.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 22.7N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 24.8N 126.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 27.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 30.2N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  21/1800Z 32.9N 127.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0600Z 35.6N 127.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)