000
WTPZ45 KNHC 181442
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Elida's satellite presentation has degraded a bit since the previous 
advisory. However, there is still a small area of inner core deep 
convection on the southern side of the circulation. There has a been 
a slight trend down with the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS, with 
only DPRINT near hurricane strength. The latest TAFB Dvorak 
CI-number has the intensity set at 3.5/55 kt, which is the same as 
the previous estimate. Based on all of the fixes, Elida's intensity 
has been held at 60 kt for this advisory.
 
The tropical storm is still turning poleward around the western 
periphery of the subtropical ridge, and the current motion is 
northwestward, or 300/9 kt. Elida is forecast to accelerate toward 
the north-northwest and then the north over the next 2-3 days as it 
is increasingly steered by a deep-layer trough encamped off the 
California coast. The track guidance has been fairly consistent, and 
only very small nudges to the right were made past 48 hours.

The storm has likely reached its peak intensity given that it only 
has a few hours left over warm ocean temperatures. Steady weakening 
is forecast to begin later today or tonight, which could be 
accelerated by an increase in shear that is expected to begin in 
about 36 hours. Elida is now expected to lose its deep convection 
and become post-tropical in about 60 hours. After that, the remnant 
low's circulation should dissipate off the California coast by day 
5, around late Wednesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 18.9N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 20.1N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 21.9N 125.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 24.0N 126.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 26.4N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  21/0000Z 28.9N 127.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  21/1200Z 31.4N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1200Z 35.9N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi