066 
WTPZ45 KNHC 180835
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026
 
Elida's satellite presentation is the best it's looked so far 
during its lifetime as a tropical cyclone. Although deep convection 
is still a little thin on the northern side of the circulation, a 
ragged eye-like feature has become apparent in proxy-visible and 
infrared satellite imagery since the previous advisory. Some of the 
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS, in particular AiDT and DPRINT, 
have increased to near or at hurricane strength, so Elida's current 
intensity is now set at 60 kt.

Elida is still turning poleward around the western periphery of 
the subtropical ridge, and the current motion is northwestward, or 
315/8 kt. Elida is forecast to accelerate toward the north-northwest 
and then north over the next 2-3 days as it is increasingly steered 
by a deep-layer trough encamped off the California coast. Nearly 
all of the reliable track models on this cycle lie along or to the 
right of the previous forecast. Therefore, the new NHC track 
forecast has again been adjusted eastward, especially from 48 hours 
onward.

The cyclone is probably near its peak intensity since it only has 
about 12 hours left over sea surface temperatures of 26-27 degrees 
Celsius. Steady weakening is forecast to begin later today or 
tonight, which could be accelerated by an increase in shear that is 
expected to begin in about 36 hours. Elida is now expected to lose 
its deep convection and become post-tropical in about 60 hours (on 
Monday), and the remnant low's circulation should dissipate off the 
California coast by day 5 (late Wednesday).
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 18.0N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 19.0N 123.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 20.7N 124.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 22.6N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 24.9N 126.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  20/1800Z 27.4N 127.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  21/0600Z 30.1N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0600Z 34.5N 128.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg