000
WTPZ45 KNHC 161435
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

There has once again been little change in the structure of Elida 
during the past several hours. Infrared satellite imagery indicates 
a large area of cold cloud tops near the center, although these tops 
are in a rectangular block rather than a curved band. A just- 
received GMI microwave overpass showed that the convection was 
located primarily southeast of the center and, while there was some 
curvature it was poorly organized.  The various satellite intensity 
estimates are in the 45-55 kt range, and based on these the initial 
intensity remains 50 kt.

The initial motion is now 280/11 kt.  The cyclone is approaching a 
break in the subtropical ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level 
trough seen in water vapor imagery west of California. Due to this, 
Elida is forecast to turn northwestward during the next 24 hours, 
with this general motion continuing through the end of the forecast 
period. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario 
through 72 h, but there is some spread after that.  The models that 
forecast Elida to remain vertically deep, such as the GFS and the 
HAFS models, show a more northerly track, while other guidance 
shears the cyclone apart and keeps the low-level portion moving 
northwestward. Since the expectation is that Elida will be weakening 
over cold water by that time, the official forecast goes with the 
more northwesterly track. The new forecast track is similar to the 
previous track through 96 h, and is a little north of the previous 
track at 120 h.

Elida has 36-48 h of favorable conditions left before the forecast 
track has it reaching decreasing sea surface temperatures.  The 
intensity guidance shows steady intensification during this time, 
although the current structure is a caution flag about how much 
strengthening might occur. The new intensity forecast now shows a 
peak intensity of 75 kt in 36-48 h.  After that, cooler waters and 
increasing vertical shear should cause steady weakening, and Elida 
is now expected to become a remnant low by 120 h. The new intensity 
forecast is a little below the bulk of the guidance models through 
24 h, and it lies near the upper edge of the guidance between  
36-120 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 15.7N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 16.0N 118.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 16.7N 120.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 17.9N 121.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 19.2N 123.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  19/0000Z 20.6N 124.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 22.2N 125.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 25.2N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 27.7N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven