000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150839
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026
 
Infrared and proxy-visible satellite imagery continue to show that 
convection remains displaced to the southeast of the low-level 
center of the depression. Recent 0519 UTC Metop-B and 0541 UTC 
Metop-C scatterometer passes indicate that the center is becoming 
elongated, and stretched out with maximum winds of 28 kt. Therefore, 
the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt for this advisory.
 
The system is moving at an estimated motion of 260/9 kt. A generally 
westward motion is forecast over the next few days as the system is 
steered along the southern edge of a mid-level ridge to its north. 
The latest NHC track forecast was shifted southward once again and 
trends towards the HCCA and simple TVCN consensus aids.
 
The depression remains within a moderate wind shear environment, 
with dry mid-level air entraining into the center. Although shear is 
forecast to decrease in about a day, the models show very little 
strengthening. Toward the end of the forecast period, wind shear is 
expected to increase once again, and the depression will move into 
an even drier, more stable airmass, causing the system to weaken and 
struggle to produce deep convection. The latest NHC forecast calls 
for the system to maintain its current intensity and remain below 
tropical storm strength. The system is forecast to become a 
post-tropical cyclone by 60 h, and  open into a trough by day 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 16.1N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 15.8N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 15.5N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 15.5N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0600Z 15.6N 134.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z 16.3N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly