000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150233
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
800 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2026
 
Tropical Depression Five-E has changed little in organization over 
the past several hours. Satellite imagery shows bursts of deep 
convection near the center, with a fragmented convective band 
attempting to wrap into the circulation from the north. The latest 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains T2.5/35 kt, 
while objective ADT and AiDT satellite estimates are hovering around 
30 kt. Since there has been no significant improvement in the 
overall satellite presentation since the previous advisory, the 
initial intensity is held at 30 kt. 

The depression continues to move quickly westward, with the initial 
motion estimated at 275/14 kt. A strong subtropical ridge positioned 
north of the cyclone supports this westward motion through 
Wednesday. By Thursday, a weakness is forecast to develop in the 
ridge as an upper-level trough approaches the west coast of the 
United States, causing the system to slow down and gradually turn 
northwestward. A northwestward motion is expected to continue 
through the remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance is 
in good agreement into the weekend, but begins to steadily diverge 
thereafter. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the 
previous advisory and closely follows the HCCA and Google DeepMind 
track aids. 
 
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive for 
strengthening during the next few days, with warm sea-surface 
temperatures, weak vertical wind shear, and a moist environment 
along the forecast track. Although confidence is low, a period of 
rapid intensification cannot be ruled out given these environmental 
conditions. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the higher end 
of the guidance, with the cyclone forecast to become a hurricane by 
Thursday night and reach peak intensity on Friday. By this weekend, 
the cyclone is forecast to encounter cooler waters, drier mid-level 
air, and increasing southwesterly shear, which should induce a 
weakening trend. 

  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 14.7N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 14.9N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 15.0N 114.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 15.3N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 15.8N 118.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 16.7N 120.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 17.8N 121.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 22.8N 127.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)