Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Remnants of Julio Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 070839
TCDEP5

Remnants Of Julio Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152020
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 07 2020

Moderate easterly shear has continued to take a toll on the compact 
tropical cyclone.  In fact, recent satellite imagery and ASCAT data 
indicate that the small circulation has opened up into a trough of 
low pressure.  Therefore, Julio has dissipated and this will be the 
final NHC advisory on this system.  Julios demise occurred much 
quicker than forecast, owing to the difficulty in predicting the 
intensity (both up and down) of small tropical cyclones.  The 
remnants are moving westward around the northern portion of a broad 
area of low pressure to the southwest of Socorro Island, and the 
remnants should be absorbed within that system later today.  The 
global models indicate that moderate to strong easterly shear will 
persist over the larger low pressure area in which Julio is being 
absorbed, and this will likely prevent significant development of 
that system over the next few days. 

This is last NHC advisory on this system. For additional information 
on the remnants of Julio please see High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO 
header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 19.5N 112.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown