Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion
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000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170848 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 Satellite imagery shows that the system is gradually becoming better organized. TAFB determined a Dvorak data T-number of T2.5 which is confirmed from a spiral banding measurement of roughly a 0.5 wrap on enhanced IR images. Therefore, the intensity estimate is set at 35 kt for this advisory, and the cyclone is being named. Based on the latest center fixes, the motion remains 300/10 kt, as in the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken a bit by the global models, and this should result in a west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slower forward speed. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement and similar to the previous model runs. It should be noted that the complexity of the track moving parallel to the coast of southern Mexico means that small changes in the system's heading will cause substantial differences in where and when the most significant wind impacts will occur. The official track forecast is close to the various consensus solutions including the FSU Superensemble. Users are reminded that the average 60-hour NHC track error is a little more than 60 n mi. Erick is situated in an atmospheric and oceanic environment which appears to be very conducive for strengthening, with low shear, water temperatures near 29 deg C and mid-tropospheric humidities of 75-80 percent. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, but some of the numerical guidance shows even more strengthening than that. Moreover, the various Rapid Intensification (RI) indices show a significant chance for RI before landfall. Thus, the NHC forecast for the peak strength of Erick could be conservative. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is expected to strengthen significantly before reaching the coast of southern Mexico, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 2. Erick will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center crosses the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 11.9N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 12.5N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 13.2N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 14.0N 96.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 15.3N 97.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 16.8N 99.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch