000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160840
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Simon Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
200 AM MST Fri Oct 16 2026
 
Simon is gradually weakening. The storm continues to lose 
organization with intermittent bursts of deeper convection north of 
the center. A 0501 UTC Metop-C scatterometer pass showed a compact 
system with peak winds around 34 kt. Intensity estimates have 
dropped slightly, and the latest subjective Dvorak CI number from 
TAFB was 2.5/35 kt, but the Final T-number was 2.0/30 kt. Based on a 
compromise of these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be northwesterly, or 310/08 kt. 
This general motion is forecast to continue through the weekend as 
the system moves in between a low-level trough to its west and a 
ridge to its east, bringing the weak and shallow system just west of 
the Baja California Peninsula over the weekend. The latest microwave 
and scatterometer data required a minor adjustment to the previous 
center position; therefore, the updated forecast track has been 
nudged northward accordingly, roughly between the corrected 
consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) ensemble.
 
Simon is anticipated to gradually weaken over the next 24–36 h due 
to an unfavorable environment of moderate to strong southwesterly 
vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. As a result, Simon is 
expected to become a remnant low within 24 h and dissipate in about 
48 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 20.0N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 20.7N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 21.8N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1800Z 23.1N 113.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Reinhart