345 
WTPZ45 KNHC 182034
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Erick Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
300 PM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft completed its mission into 
Erick this morning and found 93-kt flight-level winds at 700 mb 
along with a dropsonde central pressure of 971 mb around 17Z.  The 
recon data showed strengthening in between the 1530Z fix and the 17Z 
fix.  An eye has been present in visible and infrared satellite 
imagery since about 15Z this morning, and recent satellite imagery 
shows the eye continuing to become more circular with warming eye 
temperatures.  The eye is nearly completely surrounded by a large 
area of convective cloud tops colder than -70C.  As a result, 
satellite intensity estimates have been increasing quickly.  The 
18Z subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 90-102 
kt.  Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 
95-100 kt range.  Based on a blend of the data, the initial 
intensity is estimated to be 95 kt, and this might be a bit 
conservative.
 
The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 315/8 kt.  This 
general motion, along with perhaps a slight acceleration, is 
expected through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday 
morning along the southern coast of Mexico.  Erick has been moving 
to the right of the previous official forecast, and as a result, 
the new guidance shows landfall slightly to the east of the 
previous track.  The new NHC track forecast is shifted eastward, 
close to the latest TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.  Confidence in 
the track forecast is high.

Erick has been rapidly strengthening for the past 12 hours, and 
given the extremely favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions 
along Erick's forecast track, further intensification in the short 
term appears very likely.  The 12Z HAFS models and the 18Z SHIPS 
guidance have Erick becoming a major hurricane soon.  The various 
SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices all show greater than a 70 
percent chance of 20 kt strengthening in the next 12 h.  The new 
NHC forecast shows 110 kt at 12 h, which is at the high end of the 
intensity guidance suite.  There is a possibility that Erick could 
strengthen more than forecast.

The next Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in 
the hurricane in a few hours, around 2330 UTC today.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erick continues to rapidly intensify and is expected to be a 
major hurricane when it reaches the coast of western Oaxaca or 
eastern Guerrero within the hurricane warning area late tonight or 
early Thursday.  Devastating wind damage is possible where the core 
of the storm moves onshore.  Weather conditions are already 
deteriorating, and preparations to protect life and property should 
be rushed to completion before sunset.
 
2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America and Southwest Mexico through this week.  Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep
terrain.
 
3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce 
coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses 
the coast, in areas of onshore winds.  The surge will be accompanied 
by large and destructive waves.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 14.5N  96.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 15.5N  97.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 17.0N  98.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  20/0600Z 18.5N 100.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen