000
WTPZ45 KNHC 151438
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
800 AM MST Wed Jul 15 2026
 
 
Elida continues to slowly become better organized on satellite 
imagery after a nocturnal burst of deep convection. However, earlier 
data from the new AMSR-3 microwave imager showed that the 
circulation remains tilted with height, with the low-level center 
located northwest ahead of the deepest convection. The subjective 
Dvorak estimate from TAFB remains T3.0/45 kt, and the objective 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have slightly increased between 
39-44 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been increased to 40 
kt for this advisory.

Based on the earlier microwave imagery, Elida position was adjusted 
a little north of the previous track, but still appears to be moving 
westward at 280/13 kt. A prominent subtropical ridge north of Elida 
should maintain this general motion through the day. Afterwards, 
this ridge is expected to shift eastward as a weakness develops 
ahead of Elida, associated with a mid-latitude trough located off 
the California coast. This synoptic weather pattern should allow 
Elida to begin gaining more latitude by the end of this week as it 
gradually turns northwestward. This track should continue through 
early next week. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement 
early on, but across-track spread increases notably by the end of 
the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast was adjusted a 
little north over the first 24 h, due to the initial position 
adjustment, but converges close to the prior forecast track. This 
forecast is also very close to the latest Google DeepMind ensemble 
mean (GDMI). 

The tropical storm is currently over a very warm ocean sea-surface 
(30 C) and embedded in a fairly moist environment. However, Elida's 
vertical structure is tilted to the south with height, and shear 
analysis from the GFS and ECMWF show evidence of mid-level northerly 
shear undercutting the convective outflow. Thus, short-term 
intensification will likely be on the gradual side. Assuming Elida 
becomes more vertically aligned and develops an inner core, a faster 
rate of intensification could occur in 36-48 h. After 60 h, the 
tropical cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm with weakening 
expected to begin by this weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast 
has a slightly lower peak than the prior cycle, but still remains on 
the upper end of the intensity aids. This forecast is closest to the 
latest GDMI and HCCA aids, but is higher than the HAFS-A/B 
guidance.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 15.4N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 15.5N 115.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 15.9N 117.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 16.4N 119.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 17.1N 121.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 18.2N 122.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 19.5N 124.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 22.0N 126.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Katz