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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion


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225 
WTPZ45 KNHC 060233
TCDEP5

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Hector has changed little in organization since the previous special
advisory, and the various satellite intensity estimates are in the
115-125 kt range.  Based on these data, the initial intensity
remains 120 kt.  The forecast track takes the cyclone over an area
of cooler water between 24-60 h and into a drier air mass after 60
h, and based on this the intensity forecast continues the trend of
the previous forecast in showing a gradual weakening through the
forecast period.  There are two caveats to this forecast, however.
The first is that Hector will move over warmer water after 60 h, and
the HWRF amd LGEM models are suggesting re-intensification could
occur from 96-120 h.  Second, the environment of light easterly
shear and moderate sea surface temperatures could allow Hector to
evolve into an annular hurricane, which would cause it to stay more
intense than the guidance and the official forecast are indicating.

The hurricane is starting a northward nudge that the track models
have been advertising, and the initial motion is now 280/12.  The
subtropical ridge to the north of Hector should steer it
west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed for the next
24-36 h, followed by a more westerly motion to the south of the
Hawaiian Islands for the remainder of the forecast period. Track
guidance has become less divergent since yesterday, and the new
forecast track lies near the center of the track guidance envelope.

While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the
Hawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the
forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts on the
Hawaiian Islands. Now is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian
Islands to ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. For
additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in
Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast
Office in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl .

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Hector.  Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning
at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO,
and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 14.7N 139.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 15.1N 141.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 15.8N 144.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 16.2N 147.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 16.6N 150.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 17.0N 156.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 17.0N 162.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 17.5N 168.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven