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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Aug 30 2026
 
Lowell is still showing signs of easterly shear, with the low-level 
center just under the eastern edge of the convective overcast. 
Satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range and have 
changed little since the last advisory. Thus, the initial intensity 
remains 45 kt.
 
The initial motion is now 270/11 kt. As before, a low- to mid-level 
ridge north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering 
influence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued 
generally westward motion. After that, there is considerable 
cross-track spread in the guidance, likely due in part to the 
potential influence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell's 
steering flow. The HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), the UKMET, and 
the Google DeepMind ensemble mean continue to show a more westward 
motion days 3-4, while the GFS, ECMWF, and the regional hurricane 
models show a west-northwestward motion. The Canadian model is still 
calling for an interaction with Karina that would cause Lowell to 
become nearly stationary, but that solution looks unlikely at the 
moment. The new forecast track lies a little to the north of the 
HCCA forecast and a little to the north of the previous forecast.
 
For the past two days, the forecast has been for the shear to let up 
and Lowell to start strengthening, but this has not yet happened. 
The guidance, though, continues to forecast this, and while the 
cirrus outflow is restricted to the east there is more of it than 
there was yesterday. The new intensity forecast will follow the 
guidance trend and show the system strengthening through 96 h, with 
the forecast in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.  The 
intensity near the end of the forecast period will depend on how 
close Lowell and the larger Karina are, as the closer they are the 
weaker Lowell is likely to be. For now, the forecast shows Lowell's 
intensity leveling off by 120 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 13.3N 140.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 13.3N 142.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 13.3N 144.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 13.3N 146.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 13.5N 148.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 13.7N 149.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 13.9N 151.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 14.5N 154.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 15.4N 157.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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