000
WTPZ44 KNHC 260232
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 25 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Iselle continues to be sheared and 
that the low-level circulation is becoming more detached from the 
mid-level center. As such, the deep convection is still located away 
from the center of the storm, which is a strong indication that the 
cyclone is continuing to weaken. Water Vapor imagery also shows that 
dry air is intruding far into the core of the cyclone as well. While 
the most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 
at CI 3.5/55 kt, the objective UW-CMISS estimates are lower and 
range from 33-45 kt. Thus, based on the available data, the initial 
intensity has been set to 45 kt for this advisory.
 
Further weakening is anticipated due to continued shear, 
progressively cooler water and increasing dry air entrainment near 
the core of the cyclone. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite 
imagery show the cyclone becoming devoid of organized deep 
convection in 24 to 36 h. Given the current appearance of the 
storm, it is possible that Iselle could become a post-tropical 
remnant low sooner and dissipate faster than indicated in the 
forecast. The current NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the 
previous one, with minor adjustments towards the end of the 
forecast period. 

Trends from the most recent satellite fixes show that the Iselle 
continues to move to the west-northwest around 7 kt. A ridge from 
the southern United States is expected to extend westward and should 
keep the system moving towards the west-northwest. As the storm 
weakens, it should turn more westward due to the low-level flow 
steering the shallow cyclone. The current NHC track is very similiar 
to the previous track, with only slight adjustments to the previous 
forecast.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 21.3N 122.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 21.6N 123.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 22.3N 125.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 22.9N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/0000Z 23.4N 129.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/1200Z 23.8N 131.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin