000
WTPZ44 KNHC 140247
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
500 PM HST Sun Sep 13 2026
 
Recent satellite imagery indicates that moderate vertical wind shear 
continues to displace any deep convection east of Norbert's center. 
Earlier ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B scatterometer passes depicted an 
asymmetric wind field, with peak winds near 40 kt north of the 
center. Given these data and Norbert's limited convection, the 
initial intensity is held at 40 kt. 
 
The initial motion is estimated to be 290/12 kt. The storm is 
expected to move west-northwestward to westward as it remains south 
of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. The track guidance 
continues to show good agreement on the general heading for this 
storm through the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is 
largely unchanged from the previous advisory, and remains close to 
the corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind 
ensemble mean.
 
While some fluctuations in intensity remain possible in the next 12 
h or so, Norbert is forecast to begin a weakening trend that should 
persist through the forecast period. The cyclone continues to 
contend with moderate westerly to west-northwesterly vertical wind 
shear and SHIPS guidance is projecting the shear to gradually 
increase after 12-24 h. Simulated GFS and ECMWF satellite imagery 
show Norbert struggling to generate any deep convection by 48 h. 
Therefore, Norbert is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical 
remnant low around Tuesday, then dissipate by Wednesday. The current 
NHC intensity forecast remains in line with the corrected 
multi-model consensus (HCCA) guidance, which follows the previous 
advisory.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 19.2N 135.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 19.5N 137.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 20.0N 139.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 20.4N 142.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 20.6N 145.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs