Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion
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000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131437 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 Latest satellite imagery depicts that the disturbance south of Mexico has continued to become better organized this morning. First-light visible imagery shows that the system has developed a well-defined low-level center, and infrared imagery shows a large burst of organized deep convection with cold cloud tops near -80 C. Thus, the disturbance now meets the requirements to be classified a tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates remain around 30 kt with a T2.0 from TAFB. Thus, the intensity is held at 30 kt, and the system is now Tropical Depression Four-E. The initial motion remains uncertain given the recent formation of a well-defined low-level center, but it is estimated at 335/9 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen and build over Mexico later today, which will cause a more northwestward motion this afternoon and evening, followed by a west-northwestward motion later this weekend. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one, which lies near the simple consensus aids. Along the forecast track, the system will parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico, remaining offshore. As the depression continues to become better organized, steady strengthening is forecast over the next 36-48 h, with the system over warm sea surface temperatures. However, there is some moderate easterly vertical wind shear that the system will have to deal with. As the system took a little longer to consolidate, the latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower, with a peak intensity of 55 kt, which lies near the simple consensus. However, some of the regional hurricane models continue to show a higher peak. Beyond 48 h, the system will cross into a drier, more stable airmass and over cooler SSTs which will lead to steady weakening. Global models show the system struggling to produce convection by 72 h, becoming a remnant low, and then dissipating by 120 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Depression Four-E may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. The Tropical Depression is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 13.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 14.9N 102.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 17.8N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z 18.3N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly