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Post-Tropical Cyclone Madeline Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 202040
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Madeline Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142022
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Madeline has lacked organized deep convection for about 16 hours and 
it is unlikely to redevelop any in the future.  Therefore, the 
system has become a post-tropical remnant low and this will be the 
final NHC advisory on Madeline.  A recent scatterometer overpass 
supports maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt for this 
advisory.  The remnant low should gradually spin down over the next 
few days and is expected to open up into a trough by the end of the 
forecast period.

The depression is moving just north of west at 280/5 kt. This 
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the 
west-southwest moving with the low-level steering flow. The NHC 
track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids.

This is the final NHC advisory for Madeline.  For additional 
information on the remnant, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by 
the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO 
header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 21.3N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  21/0600Z 21.4N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/1800Z 21.6N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0600Z 21.6N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1800Z 21.4N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0600Z 21.2N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1800Z 21.0N 121.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1800Z 20.6N 124.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z 20.2N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Jelsema