WTPZ44 KNHC 110235
Post-Tropical Cyclone Howard Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022
The last bit of deep convection near Howard's center faded around
the time of this morning's advisory, about 12 hours ago. Since the
center is now moving over waters colder than 22 degrees Celsius,
it's very unlikely that significant deep convection will reignite,
and Howard has therefore degenerated into a post-tropical low.
The low is still likely producing gale-force winds, which are
estimated to be as high as 40 kt based on a gradual spin down of
the circulation and the latest satellite estimates. Gales could
continue for another 6-12 hours as the system weakens over cold
water, and global models are in general agreement that the remnant
low will dissipate in 2-3 days.
The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt.
Howard's remnant circulation is expected to turn westward and slow
down a bit during the next 24 hours, continuing that motion until
dissipation. The previous forecast lies along the northern edge of
the 00z track guidance envelope, and because of that, the new (and
final) NHC forecast has been pushed southward, close to the GFS and
TVCE consensus solutions.
For additional information on the post-tropical low, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 24.1N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/1200Z 24.4N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0000Z 24.6N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 24.6N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 24.4N 128.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW