000
WTPZ44 KNHC 022031
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042026
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 02 2026

There has been little change in the organization of Douglas during 
the past several hours as the cyclone continues to produce 
convection in a ragged band to the northwest and north of the 
center.  The various subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates remain in the 35-40 kt range, and a partial ASCAT pass in 
the southeastern quadrant showed winds of at least 30 kt.  Based 
on these data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.
 
The initial motion is now north-northwestward or 345/6 kt.  This 
general motion should continue for the next 12 h or so, followed by 
a turn to the northwest as the weakening cyclone is steered more by 
the low-level flow.  The track guidance is in general agreement 
with this scenario, and indeed much of it lies to the left of the 
new forecast track.  However, the Google DeepMind Ensemble mean 
shows less of a turn than the other models and consequently is on 
the right side of the guidance envelope by 48-72 h.  The new 
forecast track is a little to the left of the previous track and 
lies near the HCCA corrected consensus model.
 
Douglas is now passing over the 26C isotherm and is experiencing
10-15 kt of southwesterly vertical shear.  The shear is expected to
increase while the cyclone moves over colder water, and the cyclone 
is also likely to entrain dry air.  Based on these factors, Douglas 
should weaken during the forecast period.  The current expectation 
is that the cyclone will stop producing convection and become a 
remnant low tomorrow by the 24 h forecast point, with the remnant 
low persisting for several days as it continues northwestward. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 18.0N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 18.8N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 20.0N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0600Z 21.0N 128.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z 21.8N 129.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0600Z 22.6N 130.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z 23.4N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven