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Post-Tropical Cyclone Howard Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 110235
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Howard Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

The last bit of deep convection near Howard's center faded around 
the time of this morning's advisory, about 12 hours ago.  Since the 
center is now moving over waters colder than 22 degrees Celsius, 
it's very unlikely that significant deep convection will reignite, 
and Howard has therefore degenerated into a post-tropical low.  
The low is still likely producing gale-force winds, which are 
estimated to be as high as 40 kt based on a gradual spin down of 
the circulation and the latest satellite estimates.  Gales could 
continue for another 6-12 hours as the system weakens over cold 
water, and global models are in general agreement that the remnant 
low will dissipate in 2-3 days.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt.  
Howard's remnant circulation is expected to turn westward and slow 
down a bit during the next 24 hours, continuing that motion until 
dissipation.  The previous forecast lies along the northern edge of 
the 00z track guidance envelope, and because of that, the new (and 
final) NHC forecast has been pushed southward, close to the GFS and 
TVCE consensus solutions.

For additional information on the post-tropical low, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS 
header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 24.1N 122.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  11/1200Z 24.4N 123.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0000Z 24.6N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1200Z 24.6N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0000Z 24.4N 128.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg