000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020835
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042026
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 02 2026
 
Deep convection continues to burst north of the low-level center of 
Douglas, with a broken convective band displaced to the southeast 
this morning. Microwave imagery showed that the low-level center is 
located south of the ongoing convection. Satellite intensity 
estimates from UW-CIMSS range between 35 and 40 knots, with the 
latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB remaining T2.5/35 kt. 
Unfortunately, scatterometer missed the system tonight, which would 
have helped with the current intensity and wind radii. Given the 
latest estimates, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.
 
The storm continues to move generally northward around 6 kt. This 
motion should continue today as the storm moves around the western 
periphery of a mid-level ridge. On Friday, a turn to the northwest 
than west is forecast as the system weakens and is steered by the 
low-level flow. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous 
and lies between the Google DeepMind and HCCA corrected consensus 
aids.
 
Douglas has only 6 to 12 hours before it encounters a less favorable 
environment with drier mid-level RH, increasing vertical wind shear, 
and cooler sea surface temperatures. Although not explicitly 
reflected in the official intensity forecast, a brief period of 
slight strengthening remains possible during the next several hours. 
However, by tonight a weakening trend should begin and Douglas is 
forecast to struggle to maintain deep convection in about 24–36 
hours and should degenerate into a remnant low during that period. 
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous and is in good 
agreement with the latest guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 17.0N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 17.8N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 19.0N 127.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 20.2N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z 21.2N 128.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1800Z 22.1N 129.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 23.0N 130.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly