000
WTPZ44 KNHC 012039
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042026
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026
 
A scatterometer pass from earlier this morning showed a 
well-defined, albeit slightly elongated center, with a few 30-33 kt 
wind vectors to the north and northwest of center. The subjective 
Dvorak estimate from TAFB was 35 kt, and various other objective 
estimates range from 31-35 kt. Based on these data and increasing 
banding features, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm 
Douglas within an initial intensity set at 35 kt. 

Douglas is moving northward at 350/6 kt. This motion will continue 
into Thursday as a mid-level ridge prevails to the east in the 
central portion of the East Pacific. The latest NHC track forecast 
has been shifted to the west for the first 24 h and lies in near 
HCCA, and between the previous forecast and Google DeepMind. Toward 
the end of the week, a slow turn toward the northwest, then 
west-northwest is expected as the system weakens and turns into the 
low-level flow. The forecast beyond 24 h has been shifted to the 
right and lies among various consensus aids. 

The storm is embedded within a moist low and mid-level environment 
with low wind shear and warm SSTs. A favorable environment may allow 
for some slight strengthening through tonight, which is supported by 
HCCA and Google DeepMind. As the storm encounters increasing 
mid-level dry air, cooler waters and decreasing upper-level 
divergence Thursday and Friday, slow weakening is expected, and 
Douglas may struggle to produce organized deep convection by this 
weekend. The latest NHC forecast shows a post-tropical cyclone by 
48 h, dissipating into an open trough by the end of the forecast 
period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 15.7N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 16.7N 127.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 17.7N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 18.8N 127.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 19.7N 128.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  04/0600Z 20.5N 129.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  04/1800Z 21.0N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  05/1800Z 22.5N 133.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Beven