653 
WTPZ44 KNHC 011450
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042026
800 AM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026
 
Deep convection has increased to the south and east of the center of 
Tropical Depression Four-E this morning as the system moves 
northward and out of the influence of the monsoonal trough/ITCZ. 
A microwave pass from earlier this morning suggested that the center 
was still somewhat elongated and farther south than previously 
thought, and the initial position has been shifted to reflect this. 
Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 28-34 
kt, so the initial intensity has been maintained at 30 kt for this 
advisory. 
 
The depression is moving toward the north around 5 kt, and this 
motion will continue into Thursday as a mid-level ridge prevails to 
the east in the central portion of the East Pacific. A gradual turn 
toward the northwest, then west-northwest is expected later this 
week and into this weekend as the system weakens and turns westward 
into the low-level flow. The latest NHC forecast has been shifted to 
the right of the previous track, and lies between the simple and 
corrected-consensus aids. 

Four-E is embedded within a moist low and mid-level environment with 
low wind shear and warm SSTs. Some slight strengthening is forecast, 
and Four-E is expected to become a tropical storm later today or 
tonight, which is good agreement with the latest intensity aids. 
However, mid-level dry air to the west of the system will begin to 
wrap around the southern periphery of the system on Thursday as it 
moves northward into cooler waters. By Friday, increasing shear and 
decreasing upper-level divergence will likely inhibit organized 
deep convection, and the latest NHC forecast shows a post-tropical 
cyclone by 48 h, dissipating into an open trough by the end of 
the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 14.8N 126.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 15.6N 126.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 16.6N 126.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 17.6N 127.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 18.6N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  04/0000Z 19.3N 128.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  04/1200Z 19.7N 129.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  05/1200Z 20.7N 132.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Beven