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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 070245
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020

Patchy shower activity continues nearly 250 n mi to the northeast
of Marie's center--way too far away and way too weak for the system
to still be classified as a tropical cyclone.  Marie has therefore
become a remnant low, with maximum winds set at 30 kt since an
ASCAT-C pass around 1800 UTC did not register any winds of tropical 
storm force.  The remnant circulation is expected to gradually spin 
down during the next few days due to cold waters, dry air, and 
southwesterly shear of about 40 kt.  The global models generally 
show the remnant low hanging around for the next 3 days and then 
opening up into a trough by day 4, and that is reflected in this 
last NHC advisory.

Marie continues moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/7 kt.
A fairly weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north should keep
Marie on a west-northwestward heading for the next 24 hours,
followed by a westward motion with a gradual decrease in speed from
36 to 72 hours.  Most of the track models seem to pull the remnant
low too far to the north during the next day or so, and the NHC
track forecast is therefore near the southern side of the guidance
envelope, between HCCA and the previous interpolated official
forecast.

This is the last advisory on Marie.  For additional information on 
the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header 
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 22.5N 136.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  07/1200Z 22.9N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/0000Z 23.2N 137.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/1200Z 23.3N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0000Z 23.3N 139.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  09/1200Z 23.3N 140.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg