000
WTPZ43 KNHC 102035
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Cristina Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032026
300 PM CST Wed Jun 10 2026
 
Cristina has continued to lose organization since the last 
advisory. The cyclone center has become less well defined in 
satellite imagery, although there is a ragged convective band 
present near the center. Scatterometer and synthetic aperture 
radar data received since the last advisory showed maximum winds 
near 30 kt, and based on that the initial intensity has been 
lowered to 30 kt.  This is in agreement with the CIMMS DMINT 
and DPRINT objective intensity estimates.

A combination of the satellite wind data and the latest 
geostationary imagery suggests that Cristina has started its 
northwestward turn, with the initial motion now 305/4 kt.  A low- 
to mid-level ridge building to the northeast of the cyclone should 
help continue this motion for the next day or so, with the center 
of Cristina moving inland over El Salvador sometime tonight and 
into southern Guatemala on Thursday. The new forecast track is 
similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus 
models.
 
Cristina is not taking advantage of an environment that is 
conducive for strengthening, and this might be due to disruption of 
the circulation caused by the proximity to Central America. The 
guidance shows little change in strength before landfall, and the 
new intensity forecast follows that. However, there are a couple of 
alternate scenarios. First, the system could continue to decay as 
it approaches the coast, and the circulation could weaken to a 
trough before landfall. Second, the convection could re-organize 
near the center long enough to allow the slight strengthening that 
would bring the cyclone back to tropical storm strength. Due to the 
possibility of the second scenario, a Tropical Storm Watch is now 
in effect along the coast of El Salvador.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Cristina will
impact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are possible 
along portions of the coast of El Salvador this afternoon and 
tonight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 12.6N  88.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 13.2N  89.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 14.6N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven