000
WTPZ43 KNHC 281439
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
900 AM CST Mon Sep 28 2026

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Rachel remains a 
sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center located near the 
northern edge of the main convective mass. This is consistent with 
shear analyses showing about 20 kt of northeasterly shear. The 
various satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-50 kt and they 
have nudged upward since the last advisory. The initial intensity 
is thus nudged upward to 45 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/7 kt.  For the next 
2-3 days, Rachel is forecast to move generally west- northwestward 
on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico.  After that, 
the ridge weakens and shifts southeastward in response to a 
mid-latitude trough moving across the southern United States. This 
evolution should result in Rachel being left in an area of weaker 
steering currents and a slower west-northwestward to northwestward 
motion. There is little change in the track guidance since the 
previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the 
previous track.

The current northeasterly shear is forecast to diminish a little 
after 24 h. However, the dynamical models are in good agreement that 
moderate shear is likely to continue through at least 96 h. Even 
with the forecast shear, the intensity guidance shows gradual 
strengthening, with the rate of strengthening increasing a little 
after 24 h.  The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous 
forecast and follows the overall trend of the guidance.


Key Messages:
 
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of
Mexico, tropical storm force winds are expected along a portion of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area
on Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along a portion 
of the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Watch area
Tuesday night or on Wednesday.

2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to 
portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall 
may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 13.8N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 14.5N 102.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 15.5N 104.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 16.7N 106.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 17.8N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 18.7N 108.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 19.3N 108.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 19.8N 109.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 20.5N 110.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven