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Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 111435
TCDEP3
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025
 
Drier mid-level air and stable atmospheric conditions have taken 
their toll on Cosme. The system has been devoid of deep convection 
for more than 12 hours, with only a swirl of low- to mid-level 
clouds evident on satellite imagery. The initial intensity has 
been lowered to 30 kt. Given the hostile environment and ongoing 
lack of convection, Cosme is not expected to redevelop, and this 
will be the final advisory.

The low is now moving toward the east-northeast at about 070/6 kt. 
Global model guidance indicates a gradual turn toward the 
north-northeast later today, followed by a turn to the north on 
Thursday, as the system steadily spins down and dissipates over the 
next day or so.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 16.4N 113.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  12/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Gibbs