Remnants of Rachel Forecast Discussion
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000 WTPZ43 KNHC 111444 TCDEP3 Remnants Of Rachel Discussion Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM MST Sun Oct 11 2026 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Rachel has dissipated over the southwestern United States, and this is the last NHC advisory. However, the remnants of Rachel are still producing areas of heavy rain and gusty winds over portions of the southwestern U.S. The initial intensity is estimated to be around 30 kt. The remnant trough is forecast to continue to weaken, but the associated moisture will likely produce heavy rainfall, flooding, and gusty winds across the Southwest U.S. today and tonight. This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For more information on hazards associated with the Remnants of Rachel, Please consult products from your local weather office at https://www.weather.gov/ Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php Key Messages: 1. Damaging wind gusts, especially in areas of higher terrain, are forecast to spread farther inland over interior portions of the southwestern United States today. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect across the southwestern United States. 2. Areas of heavy rainfall from the remnants of Rachel and its associated moisture will continue to result in the potential for significant flash and urban flooding today from Southern California into the Great Basin and portions of the Southwest United States. 3. Waves generated by Rachel, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California. Major coastal flooding has already been occurring in some areas, with observed water levels running as much as 1.5 feet above predictions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen this morning as the highest waves associated with Rachel coincide with high tides and already elevated water levels. Hazardous coastal conditions are expected to continue the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 35.8N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly