629 
WTPZ43 KNHC 031449
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 AM MST Thu Sep 03 2026
 
The structure of Marie has improved this morning. First-light 
visible satellite imagery shows convection becoming increasingly 
symmetric around the hurricane's center, with colder cloud tops 
wrapping nearly completely around the core. The latest Dvorak 
intensity estimate from TAFB was 4.5/77 kt, while objective 
intensity estimates range from 68-83 kt. Given the improved 
satellite presentation and upward trend in intensity estimates, the 
initial intensity has been set at 80 kt for this advisory. 
 
Marie is moving west-northwestward around 9 kt, guided by a 
mid-level ridge to its northwest. This general motion is expected to 
continue over the next 2-3 days. By late this weekend into next 
week, however, considerable spread develops in the track guidance as 
the aforementioned ridge weakens and an upper-level low approaches 
the West Coast of the United States. The strength of this low could 
have a significant influence on Marie's long-range track. A stronger 
system moving into the western U.S. would erode the ridge more 
substantially and result in a more northward track, while a weaker 
system would allow the ridge to remain stronger and keep Marie on a 
more west-northwestward heading. Given these uncertainties, 
confidence in the track forecast is somewhat lower than normal. The 
latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous track and remains 
very close to the Google Deep Mind and HCCA solutions through 60 h. 
Thereafter, the forecast has been nudged to the right of the 
previous track through the remainder of the forecast period. 

The hurricane is moving through warm waters around 28-29 C in an 
environment with low wind shear, moist mid-level air and favorable 
upper-level divergence. These conditions are expected to persist 
over the next 24-36 h, and Marie is forecast to gradually 
strengthen. It is worth noting that the ECMWF and GFS SHIPS guidance 
indicate a small potential for rapid intensification during this 
period, and because of this, the official NHC forecast intensity 
remains near the top of the guidance envelope. The medium- to 
long-range intensity forecast will depend strongly on Marie's track. 
A more northward track would allow the hurricane to remain in 
slightly warmer waters for a longer period, while a more 
west-northwestward track would bring Marie over cooler waters and 
likely result in a faster rate of weakening. The official NHC 
intensity forecast calls for Marie to begin slowly weakening this 
weekend as increasing mid-level dry air wraps around the hurricane, 
with a more steady rate of weakening expected early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 19.2N 114.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 20.0N 117.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 20.7N 118.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 21.4N 119.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 22.2N 121.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 22.6N 122.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 23.3N 125.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 24.1N 128.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams