000
WTPZ43 KNHC 020844
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 AM MST Wed Sep 02 2026

Satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to produce deep 
convection near the center, with a large curved band in the 
southeastern semicircle of the storm.  An earlier microwave image 
did show that the inner core remains in the primitive stages of 
development, though that was several hours ago now.  Intensity 
estimates are about the same as the last cycle, so the current winds 
will remain 55 kt.  

Marie remains on a northwestward heading tonight, steered by a 
distant ridge over Mexico.  The ridge is forecast to build westward 
later this week, which will likely force Marie to move more towards 
the west-northwest.  Track uncertainty is high by the weekend due 
to an approaching mid-latitude trough over the eastern Pacific, 
though the bulk of the guidance show this trough missing the storm. 
The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, showing 
the west-northwestward track at the end of the forecast, and lying 
near the typically reliable HCCA and GDMI consensus aids.

The storm has a couple of days over very warm waters within light 
shear for intensification.  The biggest current hindrance is 
probably the earlier-observed broad microwave structure, though 
very deep convection is near the center.  Thus the NHC forecast 
will stay on the aggressive side of the guidance, and little 
change is made to the previous forecast.  By the weekend, Marie is 
forecast to move over cooler SSTs and into a drier, more stable air 
mass, which should induce a gradual weakening trend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 16.7N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 17.5N 112.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 18.4N 113.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 19.1N 115.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 19.7N 116.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 20.2N 118.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 20.8N 119.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 22.1N 121.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 22.8N 124.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake