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Tropical Depression Octave Forecast Discussion


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483 
WTPZ43 KNHC 191458
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Octave Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Octave's last bit of deep convection dissipated about 6 hours ago,
around 0900 UTC, leaving the cyclone as a swirl of low-level clouds.
The maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt based mainly on
the CI number from TAFB.  Octave could still produce intermittent
bursts of convection during the next several days, but increased
shear and a dry air mass with mid-level relative humidities of 30-40
percent are likely to keep the activity from being persistent or
well organized.  If deep convection doesn't redevelop soon, then
Octave would be declared a remnant low later today.  The cyclone's
maximum winds should decrease a little more in the short term, but
the remnant low is likely to persist near the Intertropical
Convergence Zone for the entire 5-day forecast period.

Octave is moving slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2 kt.  The
depression is caught in a weak steering pattern, and it is likely
to meander around for the next 5 days, never reaching speeds any
higher than about 3 kt.  No significant changes to the NHC track
forecast were made from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 11.5N 125.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 11.6N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/1200Z 11.3N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0000Z 10.9N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1200Z 10.8N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1200Z 11.4N 125.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1200Z 12.5N 124.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1200Z 12.6N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg