000
WTPZ43 KNHC 100234
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032026
900 PM CST Tue Jun 09 2026
 
Unlike 24 hours ago, Cristina's low-level center is difficult to 
find this evening. While convection has continued to pulse near and 
to the south of the estimated center, it only has modest 
organization. An afternoon OSCAT pass suggested the center was 
slightly farther south than earlier today, and radar images out of 
Nicaragua do show some broad mid-level turning in the same vicinity. 
Satellite intensity estimates have not changed much from earlier 
today, and the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.
 
Piecing together the data, it appears Cristina is starting to crawl 
along a little south of due west, with an estimated motion of 
260/2 kt. The track guidance is in a bit better agreement, showing a 
very slow westward motion in the short-term. Then, as a mid-level 
ridge builds in from the east over the Caribbean Sea, the track 
guidance responds by showing a sharper turn to the northwest in 
24-36 h, bringing Cristina inland near El Salvador during this 
period. The storm should then quickly dissipate over the higher 
terrain of Central America. Given the farther southward initial 
position, the latest NHC track forecast was nudged a bit southward 
early on, but converges fairly close to the previous forecast track 
after 24 h. 

Vertical wind shear over Cristina has decreased over the past day, 
now under 20 kt out of the northeast. The system remains over very 
warm sea-surface temperatures with ample deep-layer moisture. 
However, it is unclear how intact Cristina's circulation is after 
brushing up close to the high terrain of Nicaragua last night. 
Moreover, most of the dynamical models show very little 
intensification in the short term. For these reasons, the NHC 
intensity forecast will continue to only show modest intensification 
in 24 h before Cristina's circulation nears El Salvador and starts 
to interact with the mountainous terrain of Central America once 
again. After the storm moves inland, rapid weakening is expected, 
with dissipation anticipated by 60 h.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will
impact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to 
impact portions of the coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, and 
Honduras tonight into Wednesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 12.4N  88.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 12.4N  88.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 12.8N  88.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 13.7N  89.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/0000Z 15.0N  89.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Adams