658 
WTPZ43 KNHC 010840
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 AM MST Tue Sep 01 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that the deep convection associated with 
the disturbance offshore of southwestern Mexico has become better 
organized over the past several hours. A 0327 UTC ASCAT-B pass 
showed a well-defined circulation and peak winds of around 40 kt in 
the southeastern quadrant. The scatterometer data also indicated 
that the tropical-storm-force wind field is confined primarily to 
the southern semicircle of the circulation. A subjective Dvorak 
classification from TAFB was T2.5/35 kt. Based on these data, 
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Marie with an 
initial intensity of 40 kt.

Marie is moving northwestward, or 315/8 kt. The subtropical ridge 
extending westward from northern Mexico should steer Marie 
northwestward during the next several days. The ridge is forecast to 
gradually weaken as a broad upper-level trough deepens along the 
U.S. West Coast, which should also result in some decrease in the 
cyclone's forward speed. By days 4 and 5, the upper trough is 
forecast to begin filling while the mid- to upper-level ridge builds 
to the north of Marie, causing the cyclone to gradually turn toward 
the west-northwest. The track guidance remains tightly clustered 
through about day 3, but there is increasing cross-track spread 
thereafter, with some models maintaining a more northward trajectory 
and others showing a sharper west-northwestward turn. The NHC track 
forecast favors the west-northwestward turn shown by the multi-model 
consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean, but 
confidence is lower near the end of the forecast period due to the 
increasing guidance spread.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for Marie to steadily 
strengthen during the next few days. The cyclone is forecast to 
remain over warm waters and within an environment of low vertical 
wind shear and sufficient mid-level moisture. These conditions 
should allow Marie to become a hurricane in a couple of days, with 
additional strengthening forecast thereafter. By days 4 and 5, 
however, Marie is forecast to encounter a progressively drier 
environment while moving over gradually decreasing sea surface 
temperatures. These less favorable conditions should bring an end to 
the strengthening trend and result in gradual weakening by the end 
of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Marie 
reaching a peak intensity of around 80 kt in about 3 days, and lies 
near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 13.8N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 14.8N 109.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 16.0N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 18.8N 115.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 19.4N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 20.9N 119.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs