000
WTPZ43 KNHC 081446
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Rachel's satellite presentation continues to slowly degrade as dry 
air continues to affect the cyclone. The coldest cloud tops are 
around -50 C. The most recent TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimate is still a 4.0/65 kt, while the objective estimates from 
UW-CIMSS are in the range of 33-56 kt. Based on the available data, 
the initial intensity has been held at 60 kt for this advisory. 

The initial motion was estimated at 300/6 kt. The cyclone is still 
being steered by the high pressure anchored over the southwestern 
United States. In about a day or so, a mid- to upper-level trough 
currently sweeping across the Pacific is expected to turn Rachel to 
the northeast and increase the forward speed of the storm as well. 
The spread in the track guidance has decreased, so there is a bit 
more confidence in the track forecast. The current NHC track is 
mostly the same as the track prior, only a few minor adjustments to 
the east have been made based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. 
 
The gradual weakening tread for Rachel is expected to continue as 
the storm continues to move through an environment characterized by 
cooling sea-surface temperatures and dry mid-level air. Wind shear 
is expected to increase over Rachel as the previously mentioned 
trough approaches the system, which will help to weaken the storm 
further. However, the sea-surface temperatures are warmer than 
normal for the waters near California and Baja California and the 
interaction of the trough could help foster the growth of convection 
as well.  There is still a high degree of uncertainty on if Rachel 
will be a tropical or post-tropical system as it approaches northern 
Baja California and southern California. Regardless, the cyclone is 
expected to produce heavy rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds. 
The current NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged from the 
previous advisory.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of extreme northern 
Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and Southern 
California at tropical storm strength over the weekend, potentially 
bringing strong winds and coastal flooding to portions of those 
areas. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of 
this area by tonight. Gusty winds are likely to spread over interior 
portions of the Southwest United States into early next week.

2. Moisture associated with Rachel will spread over portions of the 
Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula 
through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of 
rainfall and a threat of flash and urban flooding.

3. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of 
Southern California and northern Baja California through the 
weekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 22.1N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 22.4N 124.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 22.7N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 23.4N 123.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 25.1N 121.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 28.4N 118.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 32.8N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  12/1200Z 42.4N 110.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Brown