000
WTPZ43 KNHC 072044
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 07 2026
 
The most recent satellite imagery indicates that the deep convection 
in the inner core has not recovered, since the prior advisory. 
However, Rachel still has some convection on the eastern side. The 
northwest side of the hurricane's eyewall lacks convection due to 
the persistent wind shear and dry air. A recent ASCAT pass was used 
to re-evaluate the size of the wind field, but due to 
undersampling, it was not used for the intensity. Using a 
combination of the objective and subjective intensity estimates, the 
initial intensity remains at 70 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion for the cyclone is west-northwestward, or 290/6 
kt. Currently, Rachel is being steered by high pressure located over 
the western United States. However, near the end of the week, a 
large mid- to upper-level trough is expected to approach from the 
northwest. Rachel is expected to slow down and then turn toward the 
northeast around that time. Once the turn is complete, the cyclone 
should accelerate to Baja California and southern California. There 
is still some uncertainty with the track after Rachel makes the turn 
toward the northeast, and that uncertainty grows larger near the end 
of the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is similar to 
the previous one with some adjustments made based on the HCCA and 
GDMI forecast aids. 
 
The cyclone should gradually weaken as it moves into an unfavorable 
environment of cooler sea-surface temperatures and limited moisture. 
However, taking into account how resilient Rachel has been to the 
impacts of the environment so far, the intensity is on the upper end 
of the guidance envelope. There is still a higher-than-normal amount 
of uncertainty in the intensity for the later portion of the 
forecast. The trough is expected to induce plenty of wind shear, and 
the simulated satellite guidance shows that the cyclone loses 
organized deep convection shortly before landfall. While the 96 h 
point shows Rachel as a post-tropical cyclone, it is possible that 
it will still have tropical-storm-force winds. Overall, the current 
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one with some 
slight adjustments being made, based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast 
aids.

Key Messages:

1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of extreme northern 
Baja California and Southern California at tropical storm strength 
over the weekend, potentially bringing strong winds and coastal 
flooding to portions of those areas. Gusty winds could spread over 
interior portions of the Southwest United States into early next 
week.

2. Moisture associated with Rachel will spread over portions of the 
Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula 
through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of 
rainfall and a threat of flash and urban flooding.

3. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of 
Southern California and northern Baja California through the 
weekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 21.2N 122.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 21.7N 123.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 22.5N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 24.1N 122.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 26.4N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 33.0N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/1800Z 40.7N 111.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg