000
WTPZ43 KNHC 072033
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026
 
Visible satellite imagery depicts Marie as a sheared system with a
low-level center that has recently become exposed to the northwest
of the convective area. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimate from TAFB was 45 kt, while objective estimates from CIMSS
range from 38-52 kt. A recent ASCAT pass from METOP-B revealed max
winds near Marie's center at around 45 kt. Given the typical low
bias in ASCAT due to its resolution, the initial intensity was set
at 50 kt.
 
Marie's initial motion estimate was 285/7 kt. The storm has moved
more westward since the last advisory, but is still forecast to turn
to the northwest as a cutoff low from the northeast Pacific dives
down and interacts with Marie. The official NHC track forecast
shifted slightly leftward due to the more westward initial motion,
and is reflected mostly by a blend of the previous official forecast
and HCCA.
 
The timing of Marie transitioning into a post-tropical storm was
moved up to 36 h as the cyclone moves into an increasingly hostile
environment, and IR satellite imagery continues to depict degrading
convection. The latest NHC intensity forecast continues to hasten
Marie's weakening within the first 24 h, before weakening becomes
more gradual upon the storm's post-tropical transition. This
forecast generally falls in line with the model consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 24.8N 125.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 25.2N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 26.3N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 28.0N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  09/1800Z 30.0N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/0600Z 32.2N 131.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1800Z 34.2N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen