000
WTPZ43 KNHC 081456
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032026
900 AM CST Mon Jun 08 2026
 
A tropical depression has formed off of the coast of Nicaragua this 
morning.  Deep convection has persisted overnight, with coldest 
cloud top temperatures ranging between -85 to -90 degrees C.  
Overnight microwave data showed a curved band wrapping around the 
southern semicircle and first-light visible satellite imagery has 
revealed a well-defined low-level circulation.  The subjective 
Dvorak satellite classification from TAFB is a T2.0 and the initial 
intensity is set to 30 kt.
 
The depression is moving northward at 6 kt.  A ridge to the 
northeast of the cyclone is expected to be the primary steering 
mechanism for the next few days.  Most numerical models show the 
depression turning west to northwest, generally paralleling the 
Central American coastline.  However, the Google DeepMind is on the 
eastern edge of the envelope, showing the depression maintaining a 
northward motion.  The official forecast lies on the eastern side of 
the guidance, between the GDMI and HCCA, showing the cyclone 
paralleling the coast and moving inland over Guatemala in 72 hours.
 
Strong, northerly, deep-layer shear is expected to inhibit any 
short-term possibilities of intensification.  In about a day or so 
the shear is expected to abate, and the cyclone is forecast to 
slowly strengthen over warm waters and in a moist environment.  The 
current forecast shows the system with a peak intensity of 50 kt at 
60 hours.  Once the center moves over land, rapid weakening is will 
occur and dissipation is expected by the end of the week.  Heavy 
rainfall and the threat of flash flooding and mudslides in elevated 
terrain remain the primary concern.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Three-E will 
impact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This 
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast of 
Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras by early Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 11.5N  87.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 11.9N  87.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 12.2N  88.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 12.4N  88.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 12.7N  89.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 13.1N  89.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 14.0N  90.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 16.1N  92.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci